Los Angeles Firefighter’s Perspectives on the future of the Palisades Windstorm and Forecasting Future Red Flag Warnings in the Large Area of Los Angeles

The windstorm is not expected to be as strong as last week’s winds, but there is still a red flag warning in effect for parts of Los Angeles and Ventura counties.

The number of people under evacuation orders has dropped from 92,000 to 89,000, the Los Angeles County Sheriff said Monday. There will be new warnings and orders when high winds return later in the week.

The winds along with extremely dry conditions will lead to a dangerous situation by the late Monday night through Wednesday morning according to the National Weather Service.

He was looking out to the future and the weather forecast for next week with the possibility of another round of Santa Ana winds.

Robert Clark, a fire behavior analyst for Cal Fire who is working on the Palisades fire, was relieved Tuesday’s winds weren’t as powerful. The quiet weather allowed crews to extinguish the fire in pockets of smoldering landscape and vegetation.

The “particularly dangerous situation” designation is still a relatively new tool, Mr. Kittell said. Tuesday’s forecast was always right at the line between high level and not, and the office opted to use the stronger warning because of the ongoing fires across the region, he said.

Ryan Kittell, another forecaster in the Los Angeles office, compared it to someone filling out an N.C.A.A. bracket every March. Even if you are the best, at some point you will not have a forecast verify as you would like.

James Brotherton, a meteorologist with the Weather Service in Los Angeles, said he would much rather have a forecast be wrong if it meant there was “less pain and suffering.”

The forecast will be under performed at times, and a storm will over perform. Both scenarios are consideredbusted forecasts in meteorology. While forecasters who predict an especially extreme event might be happy if the conditions aren’t as bad as they had predicted, they know that if the forecast is off by too much, people will trust future warnings a little less.